February 2012 MLB Events
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MLB: AL West Preview 2010
2010-06-24
Los Angeles Angels 1st
They lost some key players over the off-season, including Vladamir Guerrero, Chone Figgins, and John Lackey. Whatever they have lost they will make up for in new additions and current players. Los Angeles has one of the strongest rotations in all of baseball with Jered Weaver replacing Lackey at the top. Weaver was 16-8 last season with four complete games and two shutouts, solid numbers for an ace pitcher to have. So far this year he is 5-3 with slightly lower ERA and WHIP marks than last season (3.20 and 1.19). Weaver will assuredly be exciting as the summer (keep an eye on his solid strikeout to inning ratio), but he also has a strong group behind him. Earvin Santana, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, and Joel Piniero fill out the rotation which MLB betting think will be the the weakness for the once powerful Angels.
Starters are not the only strong point of the Angels’ pitching, the bullpen has some worth as well. Losing K-Rod seemed like a devastating blow to Angels fans, but Brian Fuentes did a great job of filling that void last season with 48 saves. Scot Shields, if he can return to form after last season’s injuries, will be a solid contributor to the bullpen. In case Shields does not regain his old spark the Angles have added Fernando Rodney as insurance. From the first to the ninth, the Angels have pitching that will take them to the playoffs.
To make up for the loss of Guerrero the front office went out and got Hideki Matsui as a free agent. Matsui was the World Series MVP for New York last season, and his bat at DH will assuredly make up for Vlad. Matsui does not hit for a high batting average, but he brings home run power and, as his World Series MVP shows, he is a clutch performer.
The Angels really rolled the dice with the letting Figgins go and replacing him with Brandon Wood experiment. If Wood can give the Angels any level of competent play for the remainder of the season they will not notice the loss.
LA has been the dominant force in the AL West in recent years, but some of the other teams are actually close to knocking them off. The Mariners are much improved this season, with a strong pitching core led by Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. With the retirement of Ken Griffey, Jr. the organization loses a real class act, but it makes them better on the field because they can fill his slot with more production (he was only hitting .184). Ichiro always gives Seattle high levels of output, and ex-Angel Figgins fits into the order nicely. The Texas Rangers have a decent line up led by Rich Harden, but how the Rangers do basically falls on how well he holds up. Texas needs him to come back from his recent injury and improve on the mediocre performance he has put up so far in 2010. Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler lead a powerful attack, with the addition of Guerrero adding to that core, making the Texas Rangers a very intriguing team to watch for MLB betting this season.
The Oakland A’s will not give anyone much trouble again this year. Once again they have great young prospects and look to be good a few years down the line… but we know how that always ends up in Oakland. It will be a tight race down until the end, but the real fight will be for second place.
As a keen follower of MLB betting who are you placing your MLB bet on to win the AL West this season? Head over to www.sportsbook.com and place all your MLB bets today.
MLB: Monday Night Baseball Betting Preview2010-05-10While it may not generate the buzz that every Monday night does in the fall on ESPN, Monday Night Baseball has become a nice tradition, particularly for those investing their time, bankrolls, and efforts into handicapping America’s Game. Tonight’s matchup puts the New York Yankees in MoTown to face the Detroit Tigers. The visitors are set up as -130 favorites at Sportsbook.com.
On the same night the New York Yankees say hello to an old friend, the Detroit Tigers bid farewell to one of their organization’s true legends. Johnny Damon faces the Yankees on Monday night for the first time since being signed by the Tigers, who will honor Ernie Harwell as they return to Comerica Park for the first time since the Hall of Fame broadcaster passed away last week.
Detroit honored Harwell with a ceremony shortly after he announced he was ill, and before the opener of this four-game set with the Yankees (21-9, +8.9), it’ll say goodbye. A flag with Harwell’s initials will be raised as part of the festivities.
This is the first meeting between the Yankees and Tigers in 2010 - New York won five of six last season - but the clubs certainly aren’t lacking for familiarity. Just a month after the Yankees won their 27th World Series title, they acquired All-Star center fielder Curtis Granderson from Detroit in a three-team deal that sent top prospect Austin Jackson to the Tigers.
That move left little room in the outfield for Damon, who hit .285 with 77 homers from 2006-2009 with the Yankees and the two-time All-Star is now splitting time between left field and designated hitter in Detroit.
While Granderson’s return to Detroit is on hold due to a groin injury, the Tigers are certainly happy with his successor in center. Jackson has 22 hits in his last 46 at-bats and leads the AL in average (.371), a point ahead of teammate Miguel Cabrera and they are 32-14 at home in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.
New York also signed Marcus Thames in the offseason after the outfielder played in Detroit from 2004-09. He’s batting .394 with a homer and four RBIs in 13 games with his new club who is 71-38 against other teams with winning records.
Jackson had two hits and scored twice Sunday, but Max Scherzer - who came over from Arizona in the Granderson trade - was roughed up again in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland.
The Yankees had won six straight heading into Sunday’s finale at Boston but suffered a rare lopsided loss. A.J. Burnett allowed nine runs in 4 1/3 innings as New York fell 9-3, leaving them 21-31 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games having won three of four since 2008.
Alex Rodriguez doesn’t have a hit in three career at-bats against Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99 ERA, 1.502 WHIP), who is showing signs of progress after making just 14 starts the past two seasons. Willis pitched six shutout innings against the Twins to earn his first win April 29 and retired 12 straight Tuesday at Minnesota after allowing six of the first 10 batters to reach. He didn’t receive a decision, giving up three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-3 loss.
Willis hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2006 with Florida and is 12-25 (-20.5 Units) against the ML vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a contest in his career. (Team's Record)
The left-hander will be opposed by Sergio Mitre (0-0, 2.79, 0.928), who’s making a spot start while Andy Pettitte recovers from left elbow inflammation. Mitre was 3-3 with a 7.16 in nine starts last season, and he’s expected to be limited to 70 pitches in his first career appearance against Detroit.
Sportsbook.com has New York as -130 ML favorites with total Ov10 and they are 115-52 as a favorite of -110 or higher and 8-0 OVER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this year. The Tigers are 30-15 at Comerica Park when the money line is +125 to -125 and is 24-11 OVER at same location vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.
This series opener for this four game series is on ESPN at 7:05 Eastern for Monday Night Baseball.
The StatFox Power Line shows New York -134.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/28-8/302009-08-31Major League Baseball closes out the month of August this weekend, meaning just September stands between us and the postseason. This past month has been quite influential in separating the have’s from the have-not’s. Teams like the Cardinals, Rockies, Angels, and Yankees have stepped up, while others have fallen back to where they are either out of the hunt or in danger of being so shortly. There are a handful of series’ on tap over the next three days that will have an impact on the playoff chases in each league. Read on for more about those matchups, plus our weekly look at the Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider in your wagering action.
With the Dodgers having fought off the hard charge by the Rockies by taking two of three from them this week, only one race has any significant drama in the National League, that being for the wildcard spot. The top two teams in that chase, Colorado and San Francisco will go head-to-head for the second straight weekend, this time with the Giants acting as hosts. The Rockies took three out of four in Denver the last time out and lead the overall series 7-5 in 2009. Only three games separate the teams coming in, with the Giants hoping to close the gap. They are 41-21 at home this season, good for +16.4 units of profit.
In the American League, only one of the races is closer than 4-games as well. That is also for the wildcard spot. Boston, Texas, and Tampa Bay are all within 3-1/2 games of one another with the Red Sox leading the way and facing what figures to be the easiest weekend set of the three. They are playing host to Toronto, who is free-falling to the tune of 16-games under .500 since June 25th. Boston remains one of the league’s best home teams at 42-21 and owns an 8-4 record vs. the jays in ’09, including 3-0 at Fenway.
Texas and Tampa Bay both faces rather difficult series’ and Minnesota and Detroit, respectively. The Twins remain in the hunt in the A.L. Central Division, 4-1/2 games back of the Tigers. Minnesota may be starting to catch fire once again, having won seven of its last nine games. The Rangers were able to take two of three in New York this week, a successful set, but will need to overcome a 4-9 record at the Metrodome over the last three seasons. The Rays are actually 2-games better than the Tigers in won-lost record, but find themselves in a bigger hole where the playoffs are concerned. The defending A.L. champs are 3-1/2 games behind the Red Sox in the wildcard race and face a schedule of 16-straight games starting Friday against teams that are current playoff position holders. Needless to say, Tampa will make or break its season in the next two weeks. Detroit meanwhile, is doing little special but continues to maintain a somewhat comfortable cushion in the Central.
Elsewhere, the Yankees will play host to the White Sox, the Braves will visit Philadelphia, and the Dodgers will look to build on their big series win over Colorado with a trip to Cincinnati. The Reds own MLB’s longest winning streak currently, four games.
Now, here are those Top StatFox Power Trends for you to utilize this weekend in your baseball wagering.
NY METS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 9-15 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in August games this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.3, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 56-30 (+26.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at CINCINNATI
LA DODGERS are 16-5 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.6, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN DIEGO at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 22-11 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 9-24 (-21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.7, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 4*)
WASHINGTON at ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS is 22-5 (+14.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.7, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at ARIZONA
HOUSTON is 47-21 (+25.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
COLORADO at SAN FRANCISCO
COLORADO is 14-5 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was COLORADO 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 6-18 (-13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.0, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 2*)
TAMPA BAY at DETROIT
TAMPA BAY is 10-21 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
CHI WHITE SOX at NY YANKEES
CHI WHITE SOX are 7-23 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 3.8, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at BOSTON
TORONTO is 17-34 (-20.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The average score was TORONTO 3.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
TEXAS at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 20-5 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 6.0, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 30-13 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 6.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 2*)
KANSAS CITY at SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 29-52 (-21.9 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB Series Betting- Chicago Cubs at White Sox 2009-06-26The Windy City is about to get a whole lot windier with the Cubs invading the South Side of Chicago to face the White Sox. For the fans of these teams, this is really a treat, for the bragging rites of the town, no matter where they finish in the standings. (Be in the baseball betting action checking the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, TEAM STATISTICS and PROPS like SERIES WAGERING each day)
The Cubs (34-35, -8.6 units) return to Chicago having lost the first four games of their road trip. Once again it is a lack of offense, averaging three runs per game to start the 10-game trip. The North Siders are just 6-14 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span this season.
The White Sox (35-37, -2.4 units) are feeling pretty spry after beating the best team in baseball, the Dodgers, two of three times. “Most importantly, we won a series against a club like the Dodgers, who came into town with the best record,” Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik said. “Maybe that will give us some momentum at home. We haven’t been playing that great here.”
The Pale Hose have won four of five and seven of last 10, as they try to get back to .500 on the season. Their win yesterday ended 0-2-1 home series drought. The down side is they are 23-37 having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons.
The White Sox will face Randy Wells (1-3, 2.57 ERA), who is coming off his first major league victory after finally receiving run support. He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts, yet picked up just his first win last Sunday against Cleveland in 6-2 victory. He’ll face Jose Contreras (2-6, 5.23), who is 2-1 in last three starts with 1.23 ERA. Sportsbook.com has the Cubs as slight -110 money line favorites with total of Ov.9. The Cubs have been poor series starters and are 4-13 in road games when playing on Friday’s since last year. The White Sox by contrast are 13-3 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.
Game 1 Edge: Cubs
Mark Buehrle (7-2, 3.17) is one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball. The left-hander and his Sox mates are 45-20 at US Cellular Field and he is 19-6 in interleague play. The month of June has been Buehrle’s time, with 27-11 record and the White Sox have won 20 of last 28 starts the lefty has made on Saturday.
Contrast those numbers with the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (4-5, 3.83) on the road. Coming into the series, the Cubbies are 5-16 in last 21 visitor assignments. This includes in part losing nine in a row in interleague play in road uniforms. Dempster and the Cubs have dropped 10 of 11 road games he’s started and if the Cubs lose on Friday, the two collectively are 0-9 off a defeat.
Game 2 Edge: White Sox
The final game of the series has Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.48) taking on John Danks (5-6, 4.43). Zambrano has complained he’s “bored” playing road interleague games, since he doesn’t get to hit with Cubs using DH. Big Z hasn’t pitched that way with 3-1 record and 2.78 ERA in away contests. Danks hasn’t been able to spot his pitches as well this year, being hurt by the long ball. The left-hander surrendered 15 home runs in 2008 and has allowed 11 already this year. Maybe pitching during the day will help, with his earned run average less than half playing in the afternoon compared to pitching at night (2.45 day vs 5.00 night).
Game 3 Edge: White Sox
These teams have taken turns sweeping each other the last two years off the Dan Ryan Freeway, with the Pale Hose taking all three a season ago. The White Sox have won four of last five and are playing better baseball at the moment. To borrow from Sox announcer Ken “Hawk” Harrelson, “Good Guys” take the weekend series.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Cubs +115, White Sox -145
StatFox Edge Pick: White Sox
MLB: Top Weekend MLB Series Trends 4/24-4/262009-04-24Baseball’s third weekend of the 2009 season offers up the first meeting between the sports biggest rivals, the Yankees and Red Sox. Nothing says “intense baseball” more than when these two teams get together. Most often it doesn’t even matter what the clubs’ records are, the disdain with which they view one another trumps all. In this case, both teams come in playing well, so it should be an exciting 3-game set. That series highlights a full weekend of baseball that also features a matchup between the American League’s East and Central Division leaders, as well as another meeting between heated rivals Chicago and St. Louis in the senior circuit. Here’s a look at the action on tap for this weekend, along with a top trend from each of the 15 weekend series’.
The New York-Boston series has been very competitive over the last couple of seasons. In fact, the Yankees hold just a slight 19-17 edge overall in the series, with the games in Boston being split 9-9 during that span. The pitching matchups for the series are scintillating. Friday’s first game features Joba Chamberlain vs. Jon Lester, followed up by A.J. Burnett vs. Josh Beckett on Saturday, then Andy Pettite vs. John Masterson to wrap it up on Sunday. Both teams come in at 9-6, with the Red Sox on a 7-game wining streak and the Bronx Bombers having won six of their last eight. However, both clubs are still staring up at the East Division leading Blue Jays in the standings. Speaking of the Jays, they will be heading to the Windy City this weekend to take on the White Sox, currently tied atop the Central at 8-7. Toronto has been getting some solid pitching thus far, holding opponents to an A.L. leading .232 batting average. However, they are also hitting the ball as well, with a .291 average while scoring 6.1 RPG. In terms of head-to-head history, note that Toronto has won 11 of the 15 games between these teams over the last two seasons. Other intriguing series’ in the A.L. include Detroit visiting Kansas City and West-leading Seattle visiting preseason divisional favorite Los Angeles.
In the National League, most eyes will be fixated on St. Louis, where the Cubs and Cardinals get together for a second straight weekend. In Chicago last week, the hosts took two of three, but St. Louis still holds on to the Central Division lead by 1.5-games. Two significant trends have developed between these clubs in their head-to-head games in recent years in St. Louis, with Chicago owning a 12-6 series lead over the last two seasons and the UNDER going 13-3 in that span. The Cardinals come in to this series leading the N.L. in runs scored, at 6.3 RPG. Elsewhere around the senior circuit, the red-hot Dodgers travel to Colorado looking to continue the momentum of their sweep over the Rockies last weekend. Los Angeles has been dominant in the early going, outscoring opponents 5.9-3.4 in their 11-5 start. The other interesting series going on over the next three days pits a pair of surprising fast-starting clubs that were expected to struggle, as Pittsburgh and San Diego are both 9-6 after 15 games.
Now, take a look at a top trend from each of Major League Baseball’s 15 weekend series’:
ATLANTA at CINCINNATI
ATLANTA is 6-19 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 3.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at NY METS
WASHINGTON is 3-18 (-14.1 Units) against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 2.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
PHILADELPHIA at FLORIDA
PHILADELPHIA is 40-20 (+20.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)
MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON
MILWAUKEE is 21-6 (+15.4 Units) against the money line vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.9, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at ST LOUIS
CHICAGO CUBS are 23-8 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 11-35 (-25.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 4.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 3*)
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 26-11 OVER (+14.6 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 24-48 (-20.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.6, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
TEXAS is 2-14 (-13.4 Units) against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 5.5, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 2*)
MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
MINNESOTA is 9-18 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.0, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at BOSTON
BOSTON is 21-5 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 6.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at CHI WHITE SOX
TORONTO is 32-15 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)
DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
DETROIT is 21-41 (-15.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 4.5, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY at OAKLAND
MADDON is 24-68 (-35.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities as the manager of TAMPA BAY.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.6, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 22-11 (+10.0 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Betting Baseball on Central Casting2008-08-19The American League Central Division has been a nip and tuck affair for weeks, with two of the unlikeliest teams competing. If this was Cleveland and Detroit going toe-to-toe in the later stages of August, this would have just played out as most would have figured. Instead, the Chicago White Sox emerged early in the season with salty skipper Ozzie Guillen leading the way and Minnesota played baseball the way it was intended and has outmaneuvered the opposition all season and is one game behind the White Sox in the division play and the same margin in the wild card chase.
Minnesota (70-54, +19.3 units) was stumped last night by Justin Duchscherer and Oakland 3-2, to fall a game behind Chicago. That ended the Twins four-game winning streak, as they banged out double digit hits for the fourth consecutive contest, but could not capitalize. Manager Ron Gardenhire was not overly concerned about one ball game, “We feel pretty good with ourselves. We’re not going to quit and we got back into it,” Gardenhire said. “With our ballclub you feel like you’re going to find a way to get a big hit and tie the ballgame. We just couldn’t come up with one.” The skipper has plenty of reason to feel pretty good about his club, the Twins haven’t been more than a game out of first place since July 30, when they were 1 1/2 games behind Chicago, and they haven’t lost consecutive games at home during the same series since losing the first two in a set against the New York Yankees May 30 and 31.
Minnesota is 17-5 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season and again faces an Oakland squad that is 6-23 since the All-Star break and has not won a series on the road since mid-June when they defeated San Francisco. Though last night’s loss was the first of its kind in 2008, the Twinkies are still awesome 13-1 with an on-base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games. Sportsbook.com likes the pitching matchup with the Twins Kevin Slowey (9-8, 3.94, 1.085 WHIP) facing the A’s Sean Gallagher (4-5, 4.50, 1.524), establishing them as -200 money line favorites with total of Un8.5. Minny is 44-23 at the Metrodome, garnering the second most profit in baseball at +20 units.
About 60 seconds later on the south side of Chicago, the White Sox (71-53, +14.4 units) will once again face the American League’s worst team in Seattle. The White Sox are back to 2005 World Series form, with solid starting pitching, a deep bullpen and bountiful home runs. At present, this club is not quite as good in the first two categories as its predecessor; nonetheless they are bopping the baseball, leading the majors in home runs with 182, including 33 this month alone. Carlos Quentin leads the big leagues with 35 and seven other players are in double figures.
The Pale Hose have won 38 of last 51 contests at US Cellular Field and are demolishing bad teams like the Mariners with 18-6 mark versus clubs with winning percentage below .400. Left-hander Clayton Richard has the starting assignment for Chicago and has been dreadful to date with 0-2 record and 9.64 ERA, being recalled from the minors just this past Friday with Jose Contreras back on the disabled list.
Seattle at least will have a chance with Felix Hernandez (7-7, 3.04, 1.291) on the mound. Hernandez is 0-1 in last five starts, thanks to faulty bullpen and offense not always showing when he pitches. The Mariners are only 8-20 in last 28 contests; however is 5-0 in King Felix’s last five road starts against winning teams. The M’s have opened as -108 money line favorite, with total Ov9.
The total deserves consideration, with Seattle on 8-0 Over run and the White Sox launching homers everywhere. The Mariners are 7-0 Over facing lefties and Chicago is 11-4-1 Over when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.
Since Minnesota and Chicago do not meet again until the last week of the season, plenty of scoreboard watching for both clubs down the stretch.
Betting on Baseball Urban Legend2008-07-07One of the many great aspects of wagering is the amount of choices available to those who choose to partake in this endeavor. While most prefer to play side action, many are more comfortable studying totals, devaluing risk by being able to pay reduced juice or find favorable numbers, betting against public perception of adjusted figures. One of the urban legends still floating around in betting baseball totals is to Play Under when the oddsmakers set the numbers low and or when two aces of any major league teams are facing one another.
Never one to take something at face value, decided to dig into these perceived notions and see what we find in 2008. Like always, certain elements follow certain situations. For example, ballparks will have a large influence on totals wagering, because of size or conditions. San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas immediately come to mind for their traits. Teams that hit poorly or feature robust lineups, will tend to be on either end of the spectrum, like a Washington or the Cubs as this year’s clubs. Lastly, top line pitchers will heavily influence totals; names like Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, John Lackey and Roy Halladay, are top of the mind hurlers for linemakers.
For this exercise, we looked only at how home performed when the total was 8 or less. We also followed the hybrid versions of numbers, meaning 8Under, 8Even and 8Over for example. The only caveats were for the Dodgers, we eliminated any games supposed aces Brad Penny and Derrick Lowe didn’t pitched at home and the was true also for San Diego, using just only games Jake Peavy and Chris Young pitched in downtown San Diego. Everything else was fair game.
Seeing this information had not manifested itself on the internet, it was really not shocking to find out all totals at 8 or less were 102-94-6 Under, 52 percent. Hardly revolutionary and mildly compelling. Here is the break down by numbers where we can start to find value.
The number 8 – 57- 50-6 Over
The number 7.5 – 36-29 Under
The number 7 – 13-6 Under
The number 6.5 – 3-2 Under
It is evident, reviewing these numbers, 7.5 or less is your best bet with Under hitting 58.4 percent, with 52-37. This does perpetuate the common belief of betting below the oddsmakers number and is a descent reason to wager on these contests, nevertheless, not a sole reason by itself as you will see below. This is a noteworthy figure, but hardly the only one found.
The number 7.5 Under figured to be a large number and was, with 49 instances. Playing Under this number produced 27 winners, for a nice 55.1 winning percentage. The downfall is the juice associated with this sum, as many sportsbooks now try to hang on to numbers and are unafraid to post up to a -135. The juice eats away at winning percentage, leaving almost no profit. What was interesting was further breakdowns. Home favorites at Un7.5 are 10-4, for +4.45 units. What did catch us off-guard was the differential in leagues. The National League, one would assume would have a greater propensity to go under this total. Instead, we found the American League was 14-6 Under with total set at Un7.5.
The most popular number to arise was Under 8. This ended up being split at 29-29-5, providing almost nothing for bettors. Here we found home teams were 41-22, a becoming 65 percent. In this case, profit was available on two fronts, home favorites were 30-15, +10.6, with the better value on the home dog at this price with 11-7 record, +5.2 units.
When the count was steady at 8, it was more boring than watching a Washington and San Diego contest. The record was 16-15-1 Over, with home teams 14-18. One potential wager to consider is favorites lost -4.85 units, with 9-11 record.
One gem that came to the surface was Over 8 wagers. This turns out to be a multi-pronged winner to think about. To date, all Ov8 bets are 12-6-1 Over, offering a meaningful profit on such a few wagers. Home teams at this tally have been even better at 13-6, for +6.1 units and home underdogs have cashed all three times they have bubbled up.
[…..especially tantalizing is the Un7, with a 6-1 Under mark and even more delicious record for the road team at 6-1 for +6.2 units.]
As shown previously, with the total at 7 or less, the Under is 16-8, making betting contemplation is a worthy idea. Visitors have won 14 of these 24 encounters. What is especially tantalizing is the Un7, with a 6-1 Under mark and even more delicious record for the road team at 6-1 for +6.2 units.
While the general belief of this angle is somewhat overblown, it has merit. The real opportunities lie in other areas, nuggets of gold are just waiting to be picked up. Take a frequent look at Sportsbook.com’s Betting Trends to stay on top of the information.
